If you’re looking for the best bets for Final Four 2025, two games stand out with strong betting value. Based on model projections, team tendencies, and momentum, I’m targeting Auburn on the moneyline and the Duke vs. Houston total as my top plays for Saturday’s action.
Auburn Moneyline vs. Florida
The first leg of Saturday’s best bets comes in the form of Auburn on the moneyline. While Florida impressed with a second-half surge to beat Texas Tech in the Elite 8, they looked vulnerable early and haven’t put together a complete 40-minute performance in weeks.
Auburn, meanwhile, has found its rhythm at the right time. They survived early tournament rust but have since looked like a complete unit. Johni Broome has been dominant inside, and freshman Tahaad Pettiford continues to blossom into a key playmaker. Head coach Bruce Pearl has his team clicking on both ends.
From a matchup perspective, Auburn has the physicality and guard depth to pressure Florida defensively, and they’re shooting the ball well enough to exploit the Gators’ inconsistent perimeter defense. Florida also hasn’t faced a team as aggressive in transition as Auburn this tournament.
The moneyline play gives you better value than the spread, especially if Auburn pulls off a close win. As of writing, Auburn is a slight underdog around +126 — which offers a strong return for a team peaking at the right time.
Duke vs. Houston Over 136.5
The second leg of the card focuses on the total in the Duke vs. Houston matchup. At first glance, betting an over in a game between two elite defensive teams might seem counterintuitive. Both Duke and Houston rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. However, the deeper numbers tell a more nuanced story, especially when it comes to how these teams allow and convert three-point shots.
Duke struggles to defend the arc, giving up a high volume of three-point attempts. That weakness plays directly into Houston’s hands, as the Cougars are top 5 in the country in three-point shooting percentage, per TeamRankings. Expect Kelvin Sampson’s team to exploit that with corner and transition threes, particularly if Duke collapses to defend the paint.
On the flip side, Houston will likely focus on stopping freshman phenom Cooper Flagg by using traps and aggressive doubles. That sort of defense often leaves shooters open on the perimeter. Duke has multiple capable outside scorers who can capitalize if Houston over-commits.
Add in the high-stakes nature of the Final Four, where teams tend to stretch their rotations and pull out all the stops offensively, and there’s value in backing the Over 136.5. My model has this total at 139, giving us a nice edge on the current line.
These best bets for Final Four 2025 blend statistical edges with situational angles. Whether you’re tailing both plays or just one, they offer strong betting value going into the biggest games of the college basketball season. For more analysis and daily picks, check out TJP Sports Bet.
