The Sweet 16 stage of the 2025 NCAA Tournament brings us a heavyweight clash between two of college basketball’s most iconic programs. In this Duke vs Arizona Sweet 16 prediction, I’ll break down why Duke has the edge against the Wildcats—backed by ATS trends, advanced metrics, market movement, and of course, Cooper Flagg’s dominance. Whether you’re riding the Blue Devils to win it all or eyeing value on the spread, this betting preview has everything you need.
Duke ATS Trends and Season Overview
Duke enters this game at 33-3 overall, and they’ve been a favorite of 10+ points in 25 of 36 games, going 17-8 ATS in those spots. Overall, the Blue Devils are 24-12 ATS this season and 8-2 in their last 10.
Since Cooper Flagg returned from his ankle injury, they’ve looked sharp—cruising past Mount St. Mary’s and Baylor with no real resistance. Against Baylor, Tyrese Proctor went off, hitting 7-of-8 from deep, and Flagg continued to dominate with 18 points and 9 rebounds. Duke also got solid contributions from freshman shooter Kon Knueppel and big man Khaman Maluach, who added two blocks and rim presence.
They led Baylor by 17 at halftime and coasted to an easy cover of -12.5. I grabbed Duke early at -8.5, and I still love them at -9.5.
Arizona ATS Trends and Road to the Sweet 16
Arizona (24-12) is 19-17 ATS on the season, but trending down—just 4-6 in their last 10 and 4-5 as underdogs. That said, they’ve pulled off some impressive upsets on the road, beating Cincinnati, Baylor, and BYU outright. They also dropped games to Texas Tech, Houston, Iowa State, and Kansas, failing to cover in those spots.
They reached the Sweet 16 by handling Akron, then rallying from a double-digit deficit to beat Oregon, covering -3.5. Caleb Love led the way with 29 points and 9 boards, backed by Tobe Awaka’s double-double (12 & 14) and 12 points off the bench from KJ Lewis.
Statistical Breakdown: Why Duke Has the Edge
Here’s where things tilt in Duke’s favor:
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Scoring: Duke ranks 11th in scoring (83.2 ppg), Arizona 14th (82.2 ppg)
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Defense: Duke is 4th in the nation, allowing just 61.7 ppg, while Arizona is 180th, giving up 72.5 ppg
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Efficiency:
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Offensive Efficiency – Duke: 1.220 | Arizona: 1.130
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Defensive Efficiency – Duke: 0.904 | Arizona: 0.997
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Shooting:
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eFG% – Duke: 57.9% (3rd nationally) | Arizona: 53.3% (73rd)
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Opponent eFG% – Duke: 44.1% (1st)
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Three-Point Game:
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Duke shoots 27.0 3PA/game (4th), hitting 38.1% (17th)
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Arizona allows opponents to hit 33.5% from deep (156th)
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Wildcats shoot just 33.4% from three (195th), on lower volume
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Interior Scoring: Duke ranks 5th in 2PT% (58.5%) and 16th in FT% (78.5%)
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Rebounding:
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Arizona has the edge on offensive glass (34.8% vs 33.3%), but Duke dominates the defensive boards (77.0%, 18th nationally)
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Both teams are elite at negating second chances
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Turnovers:
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Duke ranks 8th in turnovers per game (9.3) and 12th in turnover rate (11.9%)
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Arizona is middle of the pack: 158th in TOs, 91st in TO rate
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Duke has the better efficiency, defense, three-point shooting, and depth. And with Cooper Flagg in full stride, they present a matchup nightmare.
Duke vs Arizona Betting Market and Line Movement
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DraftKings opened this game at Duke -8.5, and it’s now sitting at -9.5
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Early action: 69% of bets, 77% of the handle on Duke
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Current action: 60% of bets, 68% of handle on Duke
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Circa Sports opened at -9 and hasn’t budged much
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But there’s a notable sharp split:
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65% of bets on Duke
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Only 41% of handle
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That’s a 35/59 split in favor of Arizona
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One odd nugget: Arizona is getting 43% of ML bets but only 2% of ML handle at +380. That’s probably some public interest from West Coast fans hoping to knock off a blue blood.
I do think Circa sometimes shades lines toward West Coast teams like Arizona, but I don’t have hard data on that. Still, I’m fading the sharper book here and siding with the DraftKings splits—and with the best player in the country.
Final Prediction: Duke -9.5
I’ve got Duke winning the national championship, and I’ve been riding them to cover until they don’t. They’ve beaten gaudy lines all year, routinely winning by 20–30 points.
Even if the stats didn’t line up (and they do), I’d still be backing them. But when you factor in their three-point volume, elite defense, and Cooper Flagg’s gravity, this is a bad matchup for Arizona.
Unless Duke goes totally ice cold or Flagg tweaks something, I don’t see how Arizona keeps this within single digits.
