If you’re looking for a sharp angle on Friday’s NCAA Tournament action, this Houston vs Purdue Sweet 16 betting pick has serious value. The Cougars have been dominant on defense all season and are coming into this matchup red-hot, while Purdue enters with questions about their strength of schedule and ball security. Let’s break down why Houston is the right side to back against the spread in this marquee Sweet 16 showdown.
Houston’s Defense is Elite
The Cougars have quietly rattled off 15 straight wins and are playing some of their best basketball of the season. While they were shaky against the spread (ATS) to close the regular season, they’ve since hit their stride. Houston is 3-0-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, most recently cashing with a late push against Gonzaga.
They lead the country in scoring defense, giving up just 58.4 points per game, and have the nation’s best defensive efficiency at .890 (KenPom). Houston also holds opponents to a 45.0% effective field goal percentage, ranking fourth nationally.
Purdue’s Path Has Been Soft
Purdue made it to the Sweet 16 by beating tournament newcomers High Point and McNeese State, not exactly the gauntlet Houston has faced. Before that, the Boilermakers were blown out by Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. They finished the season 4-6 ATS, while Houston went 5-4-1 in the same stretch.
While Purdue boasts a strong offense with a 56.1% eFG% and a 1.150 offensive efficiency, Houston isn’t far behind at 52.6% eFG% and 1.134 efficiency—and again, their defensive edge is substantial.
Turnovers and Rebounding Favor Houston
This is where the game could be decided. Purdue turns the ball over at a 13.6% rate (91st nationally), while Houston forces turnovers at an 18.8% clip (13th in the country). That mismatch creates a serious concern for Purdue’s backcourt, especially point guard Braden Smith, who has struggled under pressure in key games.
Houston also dominates the glass, ranking 10th in offensive rebounding rate (36.0%). Purdue allows opponents to rebound 28.4% of their misses, which ranks just 222nd. That’s a recipe for extra possessions and extended leads.
Betting Market Movement and Sharp Action
When DraftKings opened this line at -7.5, I locked it in immediately. With 66% of bets and 86% of the handle, the number was quickly pushed to -8.5. Even at this number, the support for Houston remains strong—61% of bets and 65% of handle as of this morning.
Over at Circa Sports, they also opened at -7.5 and saw a sharp split favoring Purdue early (50% of bets, 67% of handle). But even with that action, the line moved to -8.5, and now Houston is drawing 72% of bets and 87% of the handle—a clear signal that sharp money is backing the Cougars too.
Final Thoughts and Pick
This game will be played in Indiana, giving Purdue a regional advantage, but I expect a solid showing from Houston fans as well. Purdue has competed, but not with the same sharpness or against the same level of competition as Houston. If the Cougars can stay locked in and avoid a backdoor cover, I think they win comfortably.
Pick: Houston -8.5
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