The first round of the 2024 NIT Tournament features an intriguing matchup between the Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Saint Louis Billikens. With Arkansas State playing at home and holding the statistical edge in key areas, this game presents a solid betting opportunity. Below, we break down the Arkansas State vs. Saint Louis odds, betting trends, and expert analysis to help you make the most informed wager.
Arkansas State vs. Saint Louis: Betting Odds and Market Movement
- Opening Line: Arkansas State -3.5
- Current Line: Arkansas State -4.5
- Total: TBD
- Public Betting Splits:
- DraftKings opened at -3.5, with early betting heavily favoring Saint Louis (67% of bets, 82% of handle).
- Despite the public action on Saint Louis, the line moved in favor of Arkansas State (-4.5), indicating sharp money backing the Red Wolves.
- Circa Sports bettors have consistently backed Arkansas State, with 100% of bets and handle on them since the opening line.
The line movement suggests that while casual bettors may remember Robbie Avila and Isiah Swope from last year’s Indiana State NIT run, sharp bettors recognize the statistical and situational advantages Arkansas State holds in this matchup.
Arkansas State vs. Saint Louis: Key Stats and Betting Trends
Arkansas State (24-10, 18-14-1 ATS) – A Strong Home Team
- Home Record: 13-2 Straight Up (9-5 ATS)
- Last Game: Lost Sun Belt Championship to Troy as -3 favorites
- Top Players:
- Jordan Pinion (15.3 PPG) – Arkansas transfer leading the Red Wolves in scoring
- Terrance Ford (13.3 PPG, 46% 3PT) – Elite three-point shooting guard
Arkansas State boasts a top-15 offensive rebounding rate (32.9%) and ranks 7th in total rebounds per game (40.6 RPG). Their ability to generate extra possessions gives them a distinct advantage over a Saint Louis team that struggles on the boards.
Saint Louis (19-14, 12-19 ATS) – Expect Road Struggles to Continue
- Road Record: 4-8 Straight Up (4-8 ATS)
- Last Game: Lost in Atlantic 10 Tournament to Loyola Chicago as 2-point underdogs
- Top Players:
- Robbie Avila (Indiana State transfer) – 17.1 PPG
- Isiah Swope (Indiana State transfer) – 17.1 PPG
- Gibson Jimerson (6th-year senior) – Team’s leading scorer (18.0 PPG)
While Saint Louis shoots efficiently (56.3% eFG, 16th nationally), they struggle with turnovers (311th in TO rate) and offensive rebounding (172nd in RPG, 21.5% OREB rate). These weaknesses will be tough to overcome against an aggressive, fast-paced Arkansas State team.
Best Bet: Arkansas St (-4.5)
Key Betting Factors Supporting Arkansas State:
- Home-Court Advantage: Arkansas State is dominant at home (13-2 SU, 9-5 ATS).
- Rebounding Edge: Arkansas State ranks 12th in offensive rebounding rate, while Saint Louis ranks 172nd in total rebounds per game.
- Turnovers and Possessions:
- Arkansas State plays at a faster pace (13th in FGA per game), meaning more scoring opportunities.
- Saint Louis ranks 311th in turnover rate, giving Arkansas State additional scoring chances.
- Free Throw Disparity:
- Arkansas State gets to the line more often (23.7 FTA per game, 53rd).
- Saint Louis ranks 316th in free throw attempts per game, a massive disadvantage in a game expected to be physical.
- Sharp Line Movement: Despite public action on Saint Louis (+3.5 to +4.5), the line has moved toward Arkansas State, signaling sharp money backing the Red Wolves.
Based on statistical analysis, betting trends, and market movement, the best bet for this NIT first-round matchup is Arkansas State -4.5. Arkansas State has the better metrics in rebounding, turnovers, and free throw efficiency, and with home-court advantage in their favor, they should be able to control the pace and cover the spread.
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