Both teams come into this matchup looking to snap a two-game losing streak. The Pistons suffered back-to-back home losses, first in a tough game against the Thunder where Cade Cunningham was ejected, followed by a disappointing loss to the Wizards. The Pelicans, meanwhile, dropped a home game to the Magic and then fell to the Spurs on the road, missing Zion Williamson in the second game.
Team Trends & Injury Report
The Pelicans (18-50) have been plagued by injuries all season, leading to inconsistent performances. The Pistons (37-31), on the other hand, have surged into the Eastern Conference’s 6-seed thanks to Cade Cunningham’s rise and the steady guidance of head coach JB Bickerstaff.
Looking at Monday’s injury report, Zion Williamson is listed as questionable, along with Kelly Olynyk and Yves Missi. Detroit comes in relatively healthy, with Jaden Ivey still out for the season since January.
Why the Pistons Can Cover (-6.5 to -7 ATS)
My model projects Detroit covering by 10 points, and the total to go over 232.5, and there are several reasons why:
1. The Pistons Have the Stat Edge
- Offense & Defense: Detroit ranks 11th in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency, compared to New Orleans at 23rd and 26th respectively.
- Rebounding Battle: Both teams are solid on the boards. The Pelicans average 12.3 offensive rebounds (7th), while the Pistons grab 11.3 (10th). However, the big difference is defensive rebounding—Detroit allows far fewer second-chance opportunities, ranking 4th in opponent offensive rebounds while the Pelicans rank 26th.
- Turnovers & Defense: New Orleans is better at protecting the ball, ranking 13th in turnover rate (12.2%) compared to Detroit at 24th (15.5%), but the Pistons make up for it by forcing turnovers at a much higher rate (8th vs. 26th for New Orleans).
- Shooting Efficiency: Detroit ranks 14th in effective field goal percentage (54.7%) and 15th in three-point shooting (36.0%), while New Orleans lags behind at 25th (51.9%) and 23rd (34.9%).
- Defensive Efficiency: The Pistons have been consistently above average on defense, with a 1.087 defensive efficiency rating, compared to 1.156 for New Orleans, a significant gap that highlights Detroit’s ability to get stops.
2. Sharp Line Movement Favors Detroit
Market movement confirms Detroit as the sharp play:
- DraftKings opened this line at -6, and it has since moved to -7 with 73% of bets and 90% of the handle on the Pistons. That high handle percentage can be concerning, but the sharp split is a positive sign.
- Circa Sports opened at -6 as well but moved the line to -7 despite 50/50 betting, indicating sharp action on Detroit.
- Moneyline movement: At Circa, 100% of bets and handle are on the Pistons’ moneyline, further supporting Detroit’s edge.
Best Bet: Pistons -6.5 (Up to -7)
I locked in Pistons -6 at -117 on BetJack, and I’d still play it up to -6.5. If you find -5.5 at -125, it’s pricey but still has value given that most books have settled around -6.5.
If Zion is ruled out, expect this line to jump beyond -7, so grabbing the best number early is key.
