Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt March Madness Pick: Gaels Defense Gives Them the Edge
The No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s Gaels (28-5) take on the No. 10 seed Vanderbilt Commodores (20-12) in what could be one of the most interesting stylistic matchups of the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for Friday, and early betting trends are showing sharp interest in the Gaels, who bring one of the nation’s top defenses into this game. In this March Madness betting preview, we break down the matchup and explain why Saint Mary’s -3.5 is our pick of the day.
Saint Mary’s: Elite Defense, Experienced Core
Saint Mary’s finished the season with a dominant 28-5 record, winning 8 of their last 10 games. Their only recent losses came to San Francisco on February 6 and to Gonzaga in the WCC Championship Game. The Gaels are led by senior point guard Augustas Marciulionis (14.4 PPG, 6.1 APG) and center Mitchell Saxen (10.4 PPG, 8.0 REB), along with 6’8” forward Paulius Murauskas (12.8 PPG, 8.1 REB). This veteran trio fuels a team that is battle-tested and built to thrive in a half-court tournament environment.
Their calling card is defense. The Gaels allow just 61.4 points per game, ranking 4th nationally in scoring defense, according to NCAA.com. They also hold a top-15 national ranking in scoring margin, beating opponents by an average of 12 points per game.
Vanderbilt: Solid Offense, Questionable Matchup
Vanderbilt, one of 14 SEC teams to make the tournament, ended the regular season on a slide, losing three straight and finishing just 4-6 in their last 10. Despite a strong offensive attack (36th nationally at 79.6 PPG), they struggle on the other end. The Commodores rank 240th in scoring defense, allowing 74.8 points per game.
They’re led by 6’1″ guard Jason Edwards (17.0 PPG) and forward Devin McGlockton (10.9 PPG, 7.9 REB), but lack size in the paint—no player on their roster stands taller than 6’8”. That’s going to be a problem against a Saint Mary’s team that dominates the glass, averaging 39.4 rebounds per game (14th nationally) and pulling in 39.2% of their offensive misses, per KenPom.
Efficiency & Betting Trends Favor Saint Mary’s
Adjusted for pace, the Gaels have a measurable edge in both offensive efficiency (1.118 to 1.104) and defensive efficiency (0.935 vs 1.037). Even in areas where the teams are nearly even—like effective field goal percentage and turnover rate—Saint Mary’s gains ground with their size, rebounding, and ability to limit second-chance points.
DraftKings opened the line at -4.5 with initial money pouring in on Vanderbilt (75% of bets, 82% of handle). However, the line didn’t budge. That’s often a signal that oddsmakers respect the other side. As of Thursday, Saint Mary’s now has 59% of the handle on just 41% of the tickets, suggesting sharp money has come in on the Gaels. Circa Sports reported a similar split, with Saint Mary’s drawing a higher percentage of the handle despite even ticket counts.
The Pick: Saint Mary’s -3.5 (Playable to -4.5)
In a clash of tempo and style, we’re siding with the team that controls the pace, rebounds better, and plays elite defense. Saint Mary’s has the tools and the experience to pull away late and cover the number.
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