UAB vs UC Irvine Betting Preview: NIT Quarterfinal Pick and Best Bet
The NIT rolls on Wednesday night with a quarterfinal showdown between the UC Irvine Anteaters (30-6) and the UAB Blazers (24-12). Tip-off is set for 9:00 PM ET at the Bren Events Center, and the betting market has its eye on the total in what could be one of the tightest games left in the tournament.
In this UAB vs UC Irvine NIT betting preview, we break down the odds, key stats, and sharp market movement. If you’re looking for an NIT betting pick, here’s why I’m backing the Under in UAB vs UC Irvine. Official NIT Bracket – NCAA.com
UC Irvine: Defense Wins Games
The Anteaters are coming off a 30-win season and a Big West regular season title, even though they came up short in the conference championship game. They’ve made their mark this year with elite defense, allowing just 66.6 points per game (32nd nationally) and ranking high in defensive efficiency (0.929).
UC Irvine’s offense runs through 7’1″ center Bent Leuchten, who averages 15.4 points and 9.0 rebounds. In their last game, a 67-61 win over Jacksonville State, it was grad guard Jackson Hohn who stepped up with a season-high 22 points. Hohn leads the team in scoring (12.3 ppg) and assists (3.7 per game).
They failed to cover as 8-point favorites in that one, but they clamped down defensively late and kept JSU to just 61 points. That’s what this team does — limit transition, slow the game down, and win with physical half-court play. UC Irvine Anteaters Team Stats – ESPN
UAB: Offense, Boards, and Ball Control
On the other side, UAB is coming off an impressive 22-point, 11-rebound performance from Yaxel Lendeborg, who averages a double-double (17.7 ppg, 11.0 rpg). The Blazers upset Santa Clara as 7-point dogs and nearly stole the AAC title game from Memphis — even with Memphis missing both starting point guards.
UAB boasts the 19th-ranked scoring offense in the country at 81.5 points per game and has been deadly on the offensive glass. They own a 36.5% offensive rebounding rate, good for third nationally. They also limit turnovers better than almost anyone, coughing it up just 9.7 times per game (21st nationally). UAB Blazers Team Stats – ESPN
Key Matchup Edges
Despite UAB’s offensive firepower, UC Irvine is still the betting favorite — and for good reason.
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UC Irvine eFG%: 51.7% (125th)
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UAB eFG%: 50.5% (198th)
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Free Throw %: UCI 81.0% (2nd), UAB 75.6% (63rd)
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3P%: UCI 35.4% (87th), UAB 34.4% (148th)
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Defensive eFG% Allowed: UCI 46.1%, UAB 51.3%
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Forced Turnovers: UCI 15.6%, UAB 13.2%
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Pace: UAB 72.1 possessions/game, UCI 71.7
Even though UAB scores more and controls the ball, the defensive mismatch is real. UAB gives up 76.5 ppg (285th nationally), and they’re facing a team that thrives on discipline and efficiency.
Betting Market Movement
The betting line opened with the total at 159.5 at DraftKings, and 94% of bets with 100% of the handle came in on the Over. Since then, it’s dropped to 158.5, with the sharp money flipping to the Under — 62% of bets and 71% of the handle now backing the lower number.
At Circa, it opened even higher at 160, but despite 67% of bets landing on the Over, the line dropped to 158, and now the Under is getting 94% of the handle on just 50% of tickets.
That kind of sharp money split suggests value on the Under.
Pick: UAB vs UC Irvine Under 158
These teams play at almost identical tempos, and both like to run through their big men. UC Irvine has the defense, while UAB crashes the boards and limits mistakes. I don’t expect a fast-paced game or a three-point barrage here — I expect a tough, grind-it-out battle with few transition buckets. For tonight’s UAB vs UC Irvine NIT betting preview, we’re siding with the Under based on key matchup metrics and line movement.
Best Bet: Under 158
Lean: UC Irvine -4.5 if it dips again
Final Thoughts
UC Irvine’s homecourt edge and defensive discipline should keep this one tight. UAB’s second-chance scoring and ball security make them dangerous, but it’s hard to see this turning into a shootout. If you’re betting on the NIT tonight, the Under looks like the sharp side.
