West Virginia vs North Carolina Women’s Basketball Betting Preview: WVU a Sharp Play in the WNIT
Not seeing much I like today across the NBA, NHL, or Men’s College Basketball. My model’s showing some indicators on a few games, but nothing that checks all three boxes of the system I usually rely on. Instead, I’m shifting focus to the WNIT — specifically West Virginia vs North Carolina in Women’s College Basketball — where I see a solid edge.
Why West Virginia is the Play
Let me be upfront: I’m not a women’s college basketball expert. It’s tough to find consistent power ratings or build reliable models in this market. But that also means the lines can be a little softer. I’m leaning on the data here — power ratings, team stats, and sharp line movement — and that’s pointing me toward West Virginia moneyline (-118 on DraftKings).
WVU is led by JJ Quinerly, who’s averaging 20.8 points, 3.2 assists, and 3.1 steals per game. The Mountaineers thrive in a full-court press defense that gives opponents trouble. UNC counters with size, especially Maria Gakdeng, a 6’3″ forward averaging 11.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and over a block per game. The game is being played in Chapel Hill, so North Carolina gets the home court edge — but the odds suggest West Virginia is still the favorite to move on to the Sweet 16.
Power ratings give WVU a 68% win probability, which would equate to about a 3.5-point favorite even on the road. HerHoopStats also favors West Virginia at 51.0%.
Key Statistical Matchups: WVU vs UNC
Offense and Defense:
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WVU ranks 31st in scoring (75.9 ppg) and 14th in defense (55.6 ppg)
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UNC is 77th in scoring (70.9 ppg) and 38th in defense
Shooting Efficiency:
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WVU ranks 40th in eFG% at 51.0%
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UNC ranks 93rd at 48.6%
Rebounding:
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WVU has the 38th-best offensive rebounding rate (36.3%)
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UNC is weaker here, ranked 177th (30.9%)
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UNC is stronger on the defensive glass, 61st (72.6%) vs WVU’s 144th (70.0%)
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But WVU limits opponent offensive boards, ranking 38th in opponent DREB%
Turnovers:
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UNC protects the ball well (27th in TOs per game at 12.7)
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WVU forces turnovers at a ridiculous rate, ranking 2nd nationally in both steals (13.8) and opponent turnovers (23.8) per game
West Virginia’s pressure defense and ability to generate extra possessions through steals and offensive rebounds give them the edge here, especially in a tournament environment where every possession counts.
Betting Market Movement
I grabbed West Virginia ML at -118 last night on DraftKings. The line opened at WVU -1. Early action was all over UNC — 100% of bets and handle at one point — yet the line moved in favor of WVU to -1.5, signaling sharp money on the Mountaineers.
Right now, we’re seeing a classic contrarian setup:
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WVU is getting just 20% of bets but 52% of the handle
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On the ML, it’s 23% of bets and 45% of handle
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Moneyline has moved from -118 to -125, despite heavy UNC backing
This kind of sharp split and line movement often signals respected action backing WVU, and it lines up with the stats and power ratings too.
Final Pick: West Virginia ML
There’s not much I like on the board today, but this one checks enough boxes for me. The stats favor West Virginia. The matchup advantages are there. And the line movement confirms sharp interest. In a lighter slate, I’m rolling with West Virginia ML vs North Carolina in what should be one of the better games on the Women’s College Basketball schedule today.
